How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

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How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by MRich on Sat Oct 29, 2016 12:10 pm

Vs PHI
@ CLE
@ PIT
Vs BAL
Vs WAS

I can see 3 or 4 wins there. We have the possibility of ending that particular stretch sitting at 10-1, if we win every game.

4 wins would make us 9-2, 3 wins would make us 8-3, with five games to go.

I see PIT and BAL as our toughest upcoming games of those five.

Thoughts?
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Re: How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by caddy4bp on Sat Oct 29, 2016 12:58 pm

I agree the Steelers & Ravens will be tough ones I'm glad its only November in Pittsburgh. We're good enough to win any and all, but you know Philly & Wash will be tough regardless as division games. Always a blood bath & doesn't matter the record. Realize that all NFC East teams at the moment are in the hunt for the playoffs. Must games for each side.

Really Cleveland is our only breather and they're trying to break the losing streak. I don't see it happening, but we're the Cowboys so they'll be trying that first half. Have to take them out quick. As the other four teams are fighting for their seasons when you think about it. Must games for them. We beat Philly, they're 2 down, win and they're even. Washington needs to beat us in order to stay in the hunt and they're not a bad team. Pittsburgh will scratch and claw at home and very physical. Then Baltimore same deal, their season is on the line and they are always physical.

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Re: How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by MRich on Sun Oct 30, 2016 8:32 am

Another thing to consider, is that most of the teams on the upcoming schedule are over .500.

Also three home games and two road games. And a few of those teams, as you mentioned, might not be able to afford losses.
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Re: How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by caddy4bp on Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:03 pm

I'm concerned for a little let down after such a big win, considering the difference of either being tied for the division lead or a 2 game edge. The Brownies will give it their best effort, feeling like they were close against the Jets and what better way to make their season than to knock off the high flying Cowboys!

After that I have my concerns playing the brutal physical games against the Steelers & Ravens. Seems like Rothlisberger will be back to face us, maybe not mobile but we're not the best pass rushers in the league. We lost two players for at least a month for 42, while 24 could be a few weeks or the season. How many more injuries can we endure?

I certainly like our position and record, but maintaining our health in these upcoming games will determine how December plays out for us. No reason we shouldn't come out of these remaining 4 games on your list at 3-1. We could live with that.

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Re: How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by MRich on Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:58 am

If we come out of the remaining 4 games I listed with a 3-1 record (which I believe is possible), that would put us at 9-2, with five games to go. These five:

@ MIN
@ NYG
vs TB
vs DET
@ PHI
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Re: How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by Cowboy1959 on Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:11 pm


I wanted to weigh in on this topic before the Eagles game, but didn't get my homework in on time.

MRich and I had this conversation via email last week, and I told him that I thought we could count on at least 2 wins in that group (Cleveland and one of either Pittsburgh or Baltimore).

Well, we got a huge game out of the way by beating the Eagles, so that tips the scale to at least 3 wins in the next 4. On paper we should be able to beat all of the upcoming teams. None of them is playing particularly well--Pittsburgh is on a 2-game losing streak, the Ravens have lost 4 in a row, and the Browns are 0-for-2016. That leaves the Redskins, who have cooled off significantly since their 4-game winning streak that, except for a win over Philly, came at the expense of some pretty mediocre teams.

I suppose a lot of this predicting depends on where you think the Cowboys truly are. Are they a legitimate 7-1, or are they a 4-3 team playing above their heads? Evidence leans more toward the former than the latter, but they are still learning how to win so it's not realistic to expect them to run the table in the next month. Of course, having the Redskins at home on Thanksgiving is a huge plus, so you have to hope that that means a W, which is really the biggest W we need in that foursome.

I like our chances against Cleveland, maybe a split against the Steelers and Ravens, and hopefully a win on Turkey Day. That sets us up nicely for a tough December. Right now I'd give us the edge on every one of the teams in those final 5 weeks, but injuries and the natural ebb and flow of a season will change the dynamic by then.

Of course, right now I prefer to take things one week at a time and enjoy the ride. I'm having so much fun that I don't really much care what's on the distant horizon. Barring catastrophe, whatever happens will almost certainly be above whatever expectations we had coming into the season, and that's enough for me right now.

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Re: How favorable do you see the upcoming schedule being?

Post by MRich on Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:52 am

Funny you should ask about the record, Cowboy.

I "ran the numbers" and the Pythagorean Expectation right now says that they are overperforming by about 1 win. They have 6 wins, and the Pythagorean Expectation says that they should have approximately five wins (4.94, rounded). A blowout win vs the Browns really won't change that much.

I think the reason right now is mainly because they have won three close games. Though we are +58 in net points.

I'm going to re-run the numbers later, just to make sure I did everything right.

But get this...NE is also overperforming by about one win. They are at 6.12 Pythagorean wins right now.
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